FARMING SUCCESSION AND STAPLE FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN MODEL FOR PREVENTING FARMER CRISIS WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH

• Main Author: Fauzi, Rizal
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/51374
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Global food security and hunger-free live becoming global issue that gain attention across country and non-profit organization. In 2015-2018 there is indication of increasing number of hunger people from 790 million peoples in 2015 to 822 million peoples in 2018 although total staple food surplus increasing with compound annual growth rate 7,5% from 2005 to 2017. One of the crucial factor that becoming main issue in recent year is farming succession, with increasing global crisis frequency in last 20 years, each country try to maintain theirs buffer stock level to facing next global crisis. Indonesia as top 5 country in number of population pushed to securing its food security level. Existing situation in food supply chain in Indonesia, rice commodities as a main staple food in Indonesia had a potential to run into food deficit and dependency on import to fulfill consumption. From data, rice commodities had a decline in number of rice farmer, harvest field, and stagnant productivity. To answer this problem, author creating farming succession model in rice farmer and its impact to rice supply chain in Indonesia with system dynamics approach. Model development focused to calculating number of rice farmers in Indonesia and impact to rice supply chain. From validation process, the model showing that model had a robust result with some assumption and special notes. Simulation result showing that Indonesia will run into rice deficit starting in 2022. In 2045, the number of rice deficit will reaching ~18 million tons with number of rice farmer only remain 7,2 million farmers. Primary challenge with this condition is to maintain the welfare of rice farmer. Based on literature study and best practice analysis, there are several options to improve rice farmer welfare, that is productivity improvement, improving rice farmers operating profit margin by implementing group procurement in rice farmer side, and implementing short food supply chains. With this improvement, second simulation result show that Indonesia will experiencing rice surplus approximately 5-10% from its consumption. To implement this scenario, authors map 3 possible stakeholder that have potentials strenght, that is Perum Bulog to initiate production and consumption Hub, food-tech startups to farmer empowerment business, and government to roll farming intencification and farming mechanization program.