THE INFLUENCE OF COAL EXPORT AND DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION ON ECONOMIC GROWTH WITH THE VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE APPROACH (VAR)

• Main Author: Setiawan, Arif
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Subjects: Pertambangan dan operasi berkaitan
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/51712
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

As one of the fossil fuels, most of Indonesia's coal production is currently exported to various countries that still rely on this commodity as a source of electrical energy. However, based on Peraturan Presiden (PERPRES) number 22 of 2017 concerning the Rancangan Umum Energi Nasional (RUEN), coal production will be limited to 400 million tons per year and a gradual reduction in exports of these materials will be carried out gradually from year to year and will be stopped no later than 2046 in order to prioritize domestic needs in order to realize energy independence and security to support sustainable national development. Therefore, the need for coal to meet domestic demand will affect coal exports so that it will have an impact on economic growth. To determine this effect, this study was tested by the Vector Autoregression (VAR) method using a period of 29 years from 1990 to 2019. The test results show that during this period, domestic coal consumption and coal exports had a positive impact on economic growth. These results explain that if an increase in 1% of the coal export variable (DLNEB) in the previous one and two periods can provide an increase in the value of GDP (DLNPDB) which is estimated at 0.0062 % and 0.1156 % at the level of differentiation. In addition, if there is an increase in one unit in the variable coal consumption (DLNKB) in the previous one and two periods can increase the value of GDP (DLNPDB) which is estimated at 0.1601% and 0.0316% at the level of differentiation. Based on these results, forecasts for the next six periods from 2020 to 2025, coal exports and domestic coal consumption are estimated to increase, resulting in increased coal production. The results are supported by forecasting results using the Gomperzt model, and Logistics. Based on the 3 models, the coal production plan from 2020 to 2025 is estimated that the value can still be increased to more than 400 million tons from the target planned by the government.