PENGEMBANGAN MODEL ESTIMASI PRODUKSI LPG DAN KONDESAT DI KILANG LNG BADAK BONTANG

• Main Author: Amir Harahap, A.H.
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/5202
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

<b>Abstrak :</b> <p align=\"justify\"><br /> The objective of this thesis is to determine the independent variables that affect the production rate of the LPG Propane, LPG Butane and Condensate in Badak LNG Plant. This research tried to get the more accurate equation to estimate the production rate of the LPG and condensate in order to reduce the potential losses in LPG and condensate production and its commercial aspect. <p align=\"justify\"> <br /> Data was collected for the last six months for the LNG production (M3/day) and the natural gas flow rates from several fields such as: Badak, Nilam, Mutiara, Semberah, TRF, Handil, Peciko and Santan (MMSCFD) as independent variables (X) and also the production rates of LPG Propane, LPG Butane and Condensate (M3/day) as dependent variables (Y). <p align=\"justify\"> <br /> Regression models being tested are multivariable regression and non linear regression with one independent variable such as linear regression, logarithmic, quadratic, cubical, power and exponential. The tested parameters to get the best regression model are the coefficient of determination (R2) and Mean Square Error. <br /> Based on the analysis result, it can be concluded that the more accurate tool for estimating the Propane production is Multivariable model. Whereas, the non linear power and the non linear exponential models are the more estimation respectively for Butane and Condensate production estimation.<p align=\"justify\"><br /> The multivariable model with the stepwise selection, power and exponential model to estimate the production rate of Propane, Butane and Condensate respectively with the level of confidence of 95 % are as follows : <br /> <br /> Propane Production = -2572.969 + 5.734 NILAM + 1.123 TRF + 4.864 SANTAN + 3.525 HANDIL <br /> <br /> Butane Production = 0.0217 * LNG 0.9778 <br /> <br /> Condensate Production = 1260.4 e 1E-5 *(LNG) <br /> <br /> This thesis also provides the estimated production rates of Propane, Butane and Condensate for next three months based on the LNG production planning and natural gas delivery planning from several gas fields. <br />