DEVELOPMENT OF PREVENTIVE MAINTENANCE PERIODIC POLICY MODEL WITH MINIMAL REPAIR WITHIN FINITE HORIZON TIME BASED ON CUMULATIVE PROSPECT THEORY

• Main Author: Ramadhania, Sherin
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Subjects: Teknik (Rekayasa, enjinering dan kegiatan berkaitan)
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/52915
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

The Cumulative prospect theory (CPT) model is a decision under risk model which has been developed on basis of the results of empirical observations related to human’s behavior in decision making. Human’s behavior is usually influenced by personality, psychological state, risk preferences and environmental elements among other factors. The model has become a very popular paradigm for measuring human preferences among psychologists or economists. In addition, the CPT model is based on strong psychological background and able to capture the decision maker’s risk attitude characteristic. Beside that, the model also has a fairly simple mathematical model so that this is the first step in incorporating CPT-based criteria into the stochastic optimization problem framework. One of the models of stochastic problems based on CPT that can be developed is the maintenance policy model which has been developed. In this study, the CPT model is used in periodic policy with minimal repair under risk for a finite horizon time where the failure is assumed to be repairable which must consider the risk attitude of the decision maker being faced by company. Reliability model, periodic policy with minimal repair model, finite horizon time model and decision tree diagram are used in the formulation and analysis of periodic policy with minimal repair under risk for a finite horizon time problem. The reliability model will give the information about the parameter values of ?, ? for the repairable system with the graphical method, Duanne Plot, and the Cramer-Von Mises test which will then be used to periodic policy with minimal repair model. The periodic policy with minimal repair model will give the information related to the value of costs and probability of each skenario N which will then be summarized in a decision tree diagram framework. The information summarized in the decision tree diagram framework will be processed by CPT model to generate prospect V value for each alternative K. Furthermore, by using the renewal reward theory, the value of V becomes the prospect value per unit time which will be the objective of the model to be optimized-maximed. Based on the results of the research and analysis that has been developed, it can be concluded that the differences in each characteristic of the decision maker’s risk attitude, which are represented by differences in the parameter values of the CPT model whose will be used cause different optimal result values depending on the decision maker’s risk attitudes whom become a stakeholder of the problem. In determining the parameter values of the CPT model it becomes one of the factors of influence in the results of the optimal solution so it is important to determine the parameter values of the CPT model that is in accordance with the decision maker’s risk attitude so that results are in accordance with the original situation, so every case encountered needs to be searched for the model parameter values. CPT from the risk attitude of case decision makers being reviewed by stakeholders.