EVALUASI KELAYAKAN FINANSIAL PROYEK DENGAN METODE NPV AT RISK BERDASARKAN SIMULASI MONTE CARLO (STUDI KASUS: PROYEK X DI PT ABC)

• Main Author: Holifah
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/52940
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Evaluating the financial feasibility of a project is a very crucial step in the investment decision-making process to ensure that the investment made will provide return for the company. Until now, the most well-known and most frequently used method of evaluating financial feasibility is the discounted cash flow method, which is the calculation of the net present value (NPV) and the internal rate of return (IRR). However, the main disadvantage of this method is that it does not consider the volatility of the project uncertainty factors. PT ABC is a company that specialized in the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) that focuses on projects with large values therefore they are also exposed to large risks for each project undertaken. However, PT ABC still uses the discounted cash flow method in evaluating the financial feasibility of a project that has not considered the uncertainty factors in the project. Therefore, it is necessary to determine a more reliable financial feasibility evaluation method so that investment decisions can be made more precisely. The financial feasibility evaluation method used is the NPV-at-risk method which produces a range of NPV values that may be obtained by a project. This method uses Monte Carlo simulation with the probability distribution of each risk variable used as input and results in uncertainty associated with the NPV value. Capital expenditure, operational expenditure, electricity production, inflation, risk free rate, beta, market risk premium, and corporate tax rate are used as risk variables that describe the uncertainty factor of project X. The results show that the conventional NPV of project X is Rp18.803.665.242 therefore based on the conventional NPV method, project X is declared financially feasible. However, based on the result of NPV at risk method, the NPV at risk of project X is -Rp27.700.916.457,33 which indicates that project X is not financially feasible.