SIRD MODEL WITH AGE COMPARTMENT EXPLORATION (CASE STUDY: COVID-19 IN INDONESIA)

• Main Author: Rizki Fadillah, Muhammad
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/53010
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

COVID-19 is a viral pandemic that is caused by SARS-CoV-2. COVID-19 was first found in China in November 2019 and reached the status of a pandemic by March 2020. The disease spreads fast and dangerous for elder people and for someone having comorbids. Therefore the understanding of the spread of this disease is important, most importantly the spread around the most susceptible group of people. One sensible approachment is to view the population that is divided by age groups, as the interaction between age groups is varying. In this thesis, the author will analyze the SIRD (susceptible, infected, recovered, and dead) model such that each compartment is divided again by k age groups. This model has features, for example the age transition (someone from i-th age group will get older and enter the i + 1- th age group) and transmission coefficient (the probability of someone from i-th age group will catch the disease if they contact with someone from j-th age group j 2 f1; 2; :::; kg). The author will analyze the stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibriums. After that, the author will do a simulation with Matlab. The simulation is done by searching the parameters such that the model is suited with actual COVID-19 data. The data used is COVID-19 active case data in Indonesia from March 2020 to September 2020. Population is divided by three age groups: children and teens (0-19 years old), adults (20-59 years old) and elders (more than 60 years old). Other than that, there will be vaccination feature in the model to analyze the best vaccination strategy. There also will be a sensitivity analysis of the compartments regarding to vaccination parameters.