FORECASTING THE DEMAND FOR BAUXITE ORE TO MEET THE DEMAND FOR ALUMINIUM AND ITS EFFECTS ON THE INDONESIAN ECONOMY

• Main Author: Hasna Anggrahini, Alfi
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/54411
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

inaccessible natural resource (a non-renewable resource) for aluminum extraction and uses for various purposes in the downstream industry. Aluminum is the second most important industry after the steel industry. Based on Law No. 3 of 2020 and RIPIN 2015–2035, the Government requires mineral management and refining to increase added value and support the mineral industry downstream program. Indonesia is the 7th largest bauxite producer in the world in 2018 (USGS, 2019). Indonesia's aluminum demand is increasing from year to year but part of it is still met through imports. This study uses a quantitative method in the form of the ARDL model to model aluminum consumption. The model that has been formed will then be converted into bauxite demand in Indonesia during the 2020–2025 period. The variables used are aluminum consumption, GDP, aluminum prices, population, and aluminum from 1986–2019. Calculate the impact of bauxite ore mining using the 2010 National IO Table which mines bauxite from mining and quarrying. Based on the research that has been done, it is known that the total demand for bauxite ore from 2020–2025 for scenario 1 reaches 37.232 million tons, scenario 2 is around 48 million tons, and scenario 3 is around 33 million tons. Meanwhile, the impact of bauxite ore mining for scenario 1 trillion rupiah, scenario 2 reached 9,802 trillion rupiah, and scenario 3 reached 6,726 trillion rupiah.