FORECASTING OF MANGANESE NEEDS AND ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACT MANGANESE MINING SECTOR TO THE NATIONAL ECONOMY

• Main Author: Hasriyanti
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/54552
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

The metal mineral industry is a strategic sector. The steel industry is one of the most vital metal industry. In addition to iron, one of the compounds in steelmaking is manganese. Management of national manganese ore mines have not resulted in maximal, so Indonesia still imports manganese ore to meet the supply needs of the manganese smelters as suppliers to the steel industries in the country. The increase of domestic production chain of manganese will impact the output of manganese mining sector to the national economy. To determine the number of national steel consumption until 2019, forecasting models are required to project the consumption of steel in those years. The results of these projections will be used as a reference for calculating the needs of manganese ore as one of the compounds that are used for steelmaking. Forecasting the national steel consumption is performed in two scenarios. Scenario I is using time series models, while Scenario II is using econometric models. Econometric models use steel consumption as the dependent variable and GDP per capita and steel consumption per capita as independent variables. On the other hand, the economic impact of the management of manganese mining sector is calculated using National Input-Output Table 2010. The total requirements of manganese ore based on national steel consumption in 2014-2019 are 4,696,898.41 tons based on scenario I and 4,861,198.79 tons based on scenario II. The economic impact of the manganese mining sector output is quite high if calculated by the manganese ore requirements based on national steel consumption until 2019, which amounted to Rp 13,173 trillion in scenario I and Rp 13,587 trillion in scenario II.