OIL PRODUCTION CURTAILMENT SCENARIO SELECTION USING MULTICRITERIA DECISION-MAKING ANALYSIS

• Main Author: Oloan Siregar, Asatta
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Subjects: Manajemen umum
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/54633
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Oil and gas industry is a volatile industry where supply and demand can fluctuate significantly in a relative short period. Pandemic Covid-19 further emphasize this situation where restriction is applied to human mobility or transportation. Given that two-thirds of oil consumption is accounted by transport it was no surprise that global oil consumption decline from 100 million barrels per day to 80 million barrels per day. This also impacted to total surplus of oil production capacity of OPEC’s country which reaches 6.15 million barrels per day in 2020, more than three times compare in 2018. PT. CPI in Indonesia also in the verge of oil surplus issue when its major customer issued warning that they might be forced to reduce its oil intake. If oil intake from customer is reduced, then PT. CPI need to curtail its production rate. Curtailment or reducing production rate is not a simple task for an oil field. There are several potential negative consequences from improper curtailment process. PT. CPI management establish a Task Force led by IODSC team to analyze the issue and develop executable curtailment scenario which become the scope of this research. This research conduct focus group discussion (FGD) with all related stakeholders and develop a problem tree analysis to define the core problem, consequences, and root cause. It is concluded that improper curtailment scenario become the core problem which can have multiple consequences ranging from safety, compliance, and economic issue. Team also agreed the root cause that become the project focus related with unavailability of guideline to shutdown wells and facility for curtailment. Converting the problem tree analysis into objective tree analysis, this research aims to develop guideline for shutdown wells and facility during curtailment period. Referring to the project focus, this research combines the Value Focused Thinking (VFT) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to develop proper curtailment guideline or scenario. VFT is used to generate curtailment scenario alternatives based on an established value while AHP is used to conduct pairwise comparison and select the best alternative. Each alternative consists of different selection on wells and facility that will be shutdown. There are 6 attributes that guides scenario selection: Avoid oil spill, avoid injury to workforce, maintain optimum profitability, minimize loss production opportunity, avoid facility start up problem, and maintain steam backbone online The result from this research is to select curtailment scenario no.2: running min. capacity in all central gathering station, shutdown low risk producer wells, shutdown mature steam flood. This scenario got the highest consolidated weight scoring in respect to the attributes. This scenario selection is recommended to PT. CPI management to proceed with developing executable Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) during curtailment.