NATURAL CATASTROPHIC MODELLING : ANALYSIS ON THE EFFECT OF RAINFALL THAT CAUSE FLOODING ON DKI JAKARTA AND RESERVE FUNDS

• Main Author: Rayanto, Richard
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/55004
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Flood is a natural disaster that caused by hydrological factor. The main reason that lead the flood disaster is rainfall with high intensity. DKI Jakarta as the capital of Indonesia is one amongst other province in Indonesia with high numbers of flood events. The flood disaster leave potential damage and cost to the area impacted. Damage defined by direct loss or the effect that straightly suffered, for example, damage to buildings, lost property and asset, and others. While cost defined by indirect loss or the effect that is not suffered directly, for example, loss revenue on business sector due to flood events that lead market closed, and others. Natural catastrophic modelling is used to analyze the effect of rainfall that cause flooding on DKI Jakarta, and hence, guiding government on to prepare several reserve funds to face flood events. For the modelling on predicting flood, the variable used are 7 stations and history date of flood events. While the variable used for reserving funds are national inflation rate, probability of flood events, and mean of damage and cost from historical flood events on DKI Jakarta. Data that will be used for the modelling are data collected from Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG), data from Jaksafe, and data from Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB). The modelling method are logistic regression and calculation of reserve funds. For the effect of rainfall to flood events, there will be 3 variation of data training and testing to analyze the total accuracy of prediction. While for the calculation of reserve funds, there will be sensitivity analysis to analyze the difference of fund that need to be reserve if the national inflation rate changed.