COVID-19 DYNAMIC MODELLING WITH DIFFERENCE EQUATION ON PSBB SCENARIO IN WEST JAVA

• Main Author: Daffa Alfaridzi, Muhammad
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/55952
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

COVID-19 has become a global pandemic for the past year. In Indonesia itself, especially in West Java, the first cases were recorded starting from March 1, 2020. The West Java government certainly provides various efforts to suppress the rate of virus transmission. PSBB, proportional PSBB, restrictions on community activities, restrictions on the use of public facilities, and the spread of vaccines in two stages, are some of the West Java government's efforts to minimalize the spread of COVID-19. The work of this final project seeks to provide an overview of the dynamics of COVID-19 in West Java and its relationship to local government policies, public attitudes towards the policies implemented, and the condition of medical treatment for this virus. It is hoped that this research will be able to provide knowledge on the level of government policy, community compliance, and health services, on the development of the number of COVID-19 cases in West Java. This research was conducted by forming a dynamic model of the COVID-19 case. The formation of the model implements the form of the 40-order differential equation with positive and negative feedback. This study has results in the form of daily and cumulative actual case models and daily and cumulative confirmed case models of COVID-19 in West Java. The model formed uses parameters that have a relationship with the dynamics of the daily and cumulative number of cases, the level of government intervention and community compliance. The model also accommodates a second-stage vaccine deployment. The model was successfully created by evaluating the R-squared metric of 0.9998 for the accumulative model and 0.7788 for the daily model. Evaluation of the MAPE metric shows a figure of 8.159% for the accumulative model which can be categorized as good, and 39.648% for the daily model which can be categorized as feasible