SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS’S BIOSPHERE INDICATORS ON INDONESIA’S NEW CAPITAL CITY (IKN) PROJECT IN KALIMANTAN TIMUR

• Main Author: Pradhita Priyangga, Oka
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Subjects: Teknik saniter dan perkotaan; teknik perlindungan lingkungan
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/56049
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

The decline in the environmental carrying capacity, which was marked by an increase in natural and social catastrophes that struck Jakarta, prompted the central government to move the nation's capital city as the center of government to Kalimantan Timur. Indonesia's new capital city will be designed with the sustainable development principles that recognizes social, economic, and environmental aspects concurrently to avoid the emergence of the same problems in the future. System dynamics may predict how the interaction of the three aspects works to achieve sustainable development in the affected areas due to the development of the nation's capital city. Prediction is carried out by formulating ten sub-systems, namely population, human consumption, energy, pollution, biosphere, climate, ecology, human, social, and financial capitals, to discover how the state of the biosphere indicators in the framework of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) declared by the United Nations until 2030. The studied biosphere indicators are SDG 6 (clean water and sanitation), SDG 13 (climate action), SDG 14 (marine ecosystems), and SDG 15 (land ecosystems). Furthermore, environmental management policy recommendations are made based on a sensitivity analysis conducted on a system dynamics model. The dynamic system model shows the decline in the SDGs biosphere indicator status in East Kalimantan until 2030. The sensitivity analysis produces the low leverage scenario as the best scenario. This scenario is produced when the explanatory variable is reduced by 50% from the initial value. This scenario may slow down the rate of decline in the TPB biosphere indicator, which is 0.27% on SDG 6, 0.021% on SDG 13, 0.489% on SDG 14, and 0.519% on SDG 15 compared with the basic scenario. This best scenario can provide direction for policy recommendations for three groups of policies: socio-demography, economy and energy, and the environment.