ANALYSIS OF PROBABILISTIC BASED GUIDANCE ALGORITHM USING GAME THEORY APPROACH

• Main Author: Dewangga, Wisnu
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/56238
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

In the modern era, missiles have been used to serve both defense and offense purposes. Despite various details surrounding each missile, they can be categorized into two major groups based on their assigned motion or maneuvers during missions, guided and unguided. A guided missile system comes with a guidance package that manipulates the missile, forcing it to stay within its’ course up to its’ collision with the desired target. Numerous research projects have been conducted to improve various aspects of missile systems, particularly the guidance system since this feature had been proven to relieve missile users of several workloads related to monitoring and control issues during a missile’s mission. One emerging guidance approach that is currently being developed uses Bayesian statistics as the foundation of its’ threat assessment process, along with Bayesian Game approach as the basic idea of its’ decision-making program. Bayes formula makes the threat assessment system capable of updating the missile’s threat status while experiencing time-varying probability distribution during a mission. The game theory concept being used yields direct and observable correlation between a specific configuration of inputs, which is considered a strategy, and a unique status output, which can be graded using a payoff function, during the missile’s decisionmaking process of solving for the Bayesian Nash equilibrium. This research is aimed to develop a missile maneuver guidance system algorithm consisting of Naive Bayes approach with equal and constant prior probabilities as its’ threat assessment principle and Bayesian Nash equilibrium approach as its’ decision-making principle, followed by implementation of the guidance system algorithm towards a missile model using MATLAB numerical platform as the simulation platform. Documented results of performed simulations are proven to be consistent with the basic theories being used and supports the hypothesis that the design guidance system algorithm can produce reasonably optimal reference trajectories. Existing issues are discussed, conclusions are formed, and a set of feasible future works are proposed.