PREDICTION OF THE GROWTH OF BUILT-UP AREAS IN BOGOR REGENCY WITH THE LIMITING FACTOR OF PROTECTED AREAS AND LP2B USING THE CELLULAR AUTOMATA APPROACH

• Main Author: Hasyim, Fuad
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/57010
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Changes in land use are a consequence of the development of an area. The growing area will be followed by an increase in the need for land for residence and activities. Changes in urban land use are a complex phenomenon, many factors influence it, both physical and socio-economic aspects. The problem is that the development of built-up land in Bogor Regency as a peri-urban area of DKI Jakarta is expansive and fast and its role as a buffer zone for the upstream watershed area makes the pressure on land use in Bogor Regency to be high. In addition, there is no empirical study on the factors causing the development of built-up land and an evaluation of the ability of spatial planning in responding to the dynamics of land change in Bogor Regency, indicating that studies on predicting the development of built-up land are important. This study aims to see the predictions of the development of built-up land in Bogor Regency based on the criteria of driving and limiting factors, as well as assessing the ability of spatial planning in responding to the dynamics of land change. The criteria for driving factors based on the literature review used in this study are main roads, non-main roads, existing settlements, existing industries, commuter train stations, toll gates, district activity centers, and sub-district activity centers. While the limiting factors are determined based on spatially binding regulations, namely the spatial plan and the LP2B area. So that in this study the limiting factors are described into four elements, namely: forest area, water perimeter, defense and security area, and LP2B area. The modeling is carried out using land cover data in 2014 and 2019 on the types of land cover that are expected to develop, namely settlements and industry. The characteristics of the driving and limiting factors for the development of built-up land were processed based on the results of interviews with stakeholders using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). The simulation of the development of builtup land was carried out using the cellular automata approach from 2019-2036. The simulation scenario is determined based on the level of compliance with the limiting factor. Meanwhile, to determine the suitability of the land cover to the spatial plan,iv an overlay technique was used between the simulated map and the spatial planning map (RTRW). The results of the model accuracy show an overall accuracy value of 85.04%, and Kappa accuracy of 80.7%, which indicates that the model has a strong level of agreement. The simulation results show that the most influential factor in the development of industrial and residential land is the main road. In addition, the highest level of compliance with limiting factors is the defense and security area (87.4%), and the lowest is the water perimeter area (49%). The types of land cover that are most easily converted into built-up land are open land, shrubs, and moor. The simulation results from 2019-2036 show that the area of industrial land increased by 192.95% and the area of settlements increased by 43.18%. The suitability of land cover in 2019 and 2036 increased for industrial land from 89.73% to 96.49% and residential land from 92.62% to 92.98%. This study shows that the Bogor Regency spatial plan is anticipatory in responding to the dynamics of land change. In addition, the land cover change model with the limiting factor of spatial planning policy can be duplicated for other regions because the policy is applied in all districts/cities in Indonesia.