OPTIMIZATION ON COAL SUPPLY ALLOCATION FOR COALFIRED POWER PLANTS IN INDONESIA

• Main Author: Naomi Hotmauli, Murni
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/57013
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Power energy needs are increasing each year as the increasing of population and the enforcement of government’s regulations on national’s strategic projects as in President’s Decree No. 3 Year 2016 and The 35.000 MW Power Program. Energy supply for power plants has been dominated by the use of fossil fuel, especially coal. Coal resources in Indonesia are estimated around 143,73 billion tonnes and coal reserves are estimated around 38,8 billion tonnes, distributed in Sumatera and Kalimantan Islands. Coal-fired power plants (CFPP) are located all around the nation and need coal supplies from producers. Hence, the supply allocation is determined as the main concern for this problem. To understand this phenomenon, forecasting is conducted on coal production and consumption as for needs to optimize the allocation. Coal producers are grouped into basins of Ombilin, Bengkulu, Central Sumatera, South Sumatera, Tarakan, Kutai, and Barito. Production forecast is conducted using Gompertz Growth Curves which are affected by the Ultimate Recoverable Reserves (URR). Gompertz Curves show the peak production for coal basins in year 2034-2035. Consumption is forecasted using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model and Trend Model. Consumers are grouped into regions of North Sumatera, South Sumatera, West Java, East Java, North Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, North Sulawesi, South Sulawesi, Nusa Tenggara, and Maluku-Papua. Optimization is conducted using liner programming with objective function of minimized procurement cost. Optimization shows optimum supplies from basins to regions with South Sumatera, Kutai, and Barito basins as prominent producers for 10 years long-term supply.