STOCK VALUATION OF PT. TUNAS BARU LAMPUNG, TBK.; THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC

• Main Author: Fathurrahman, Dimas
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Subjects: Manajemen umum
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/57238
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

The agricultural sector is one of the main contributors to Indonesian economic growth, which is known as an agricultural country, which contributed 13.7% of Indonesia's GDP in 2020. The Covid-19 pandemic, which began to be confirmed in Indonesia in early 2020, caused negative impacts in all aspects. Although this pandemic is predicted to recover quickly, the world, including Indonesia, is faced with many uncertainties. This is related to how long Covid-19 will last and what the global economic consequences will be, especially for commodity sales. Crude Palm Oil (CPO), which contributes 15% of Indonesia's total exports, is one of Indonesia's leading commodities that has a strategic role in the national economy. The palm oil trade recorded a surplus of US$13.82 billion in 2020 and remained the main choice for consumers compared to other types of vegetable oil. The revenue performance of companies in the palm oil industry depends on the condition of global CPO prices. It can be seen that when global CPO prices increased by 2.7% to USD 755.28/ton in 2017, most companies in the palm oil industry also experienced an increase in revenue. At the end of 2020, PT. Tunas Baru Lampung Tbk (TBLA), one of the companies in the agriculture sector listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, has a market capitalization of approximately IDR 5 trillion. Apart from producing palm oil products and derivatives as its main business which contributes 67% of total revenue, TBLA also makes the sugar products and its derivatives as one of its main businesses. The business, which was started in 2012, contributes about 33% of the total revenue generated. Based on the issue of CPO price volatility as well as the Covid-19 pandemic, which can have a positive or negative impact on TBLA's business, the fair value of TBLA shares must be recalculated based on the factors that might affect the valuation. Linear regression is used to determine the effect of changes in global CPO prices on TBLA’s revenue. The absolute valuation model using Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) will be used to calculate TBLA's fair value at the end of 2020. Sensitivity analysis will help analysts in making a comprehensive valuation if at some point in the future there is a change in circumstances. At the final stage, a statistical hypothesis testing was conducted to analyze the effect of Covid-19 pandemic on the performance of listed companies in agricultural sector. With using DCF method, the fair value valuation of TBLA shares at the end of 2020 is IDR 1,380. The author can conclude that there is a statistically significant difference between ROE before the covid-19 pandemic and ROE after the covid-19 pandemic in agricultural sector. Meanwhile, there is no statistically significant difference between PER, PBV, NPM, and DER before the covid-19 pandemic and PER, PBV, NPM, and DER after the covid-19 pandemic.