LONG-TERM SCENARIO ALTERNATIVES TO ACHIEVE NET ZERO CARBON 2050: LEAP MODEL APPLICATION OF INDONESIA POWER GENERATION SECTOR

• Main Author: Putra Kanugrahan, Satria
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Subjects: Manajemen umum
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/57280
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Indonesia aims to achieve power generation with renewable energy targets of 23%, 28%, and 31% in 2025, 2038, and 2050. Moreover, there’s a discussion to achieve zero carbon in 2050. This research provides the techno-economic analysis of generation expansion planning to achieve the target using the LEAP model. This research provides new insights into Indonesia's electricity demand projections in the post-COVID19 era and the future of Indonesia's power generation expansion to achieve renewable energy targets, especially to achieve zero carbon in 2050. Four scenarios are being modelled in this research, i.e., Business – as – Usual (BAU), Cost Optimization (CO), National Plan (NP), and Zero Carbon (ZC) scenarios. The BAU condition is based on PLN Electricity Business Plan 2019 - 2028, with no renewable energy target. The CO is set to achieve the renewable energy target with the least cost. The NP aim to achieve renewable energy, with an additional natural gas target of 22% in 2025 and 25% in 2038. The ZC aim to achieve 100% renewable energy in 2050 with the least cost. The BAU power generation capacity in 2050 will be 332.29 GW, with the large portion of power comes from coal and natural gas. The BAU scenario has the highest total cost of electricity production compared to the other scenarios. In total, BAU scenario total cost of electricity production up to 2050 is USD 180.51 billion. The high total cost of BAU scenario is due to the overcapacity in existing and future contracted power plant. Meanwhile, The CO scenario total power generation capacity in 2050 will be 347.4 GW, this scenario able to achieve the renewable energy target with the least total cost. The CO cost up to 2050 is USD 89.21 billion. The CO scenario has the lowest total cost and succeed in achieve the renewable energy target, but may not represent a feasible implementation option due to the intermittency characteristic of renewable energy. The NP scenario power generation capacity in 2050 will be 347.4 GW. The NP scenario able to achieve the renewable energy and natural gas target. However, in order to achieve the target, the total cost increase up to USD 124.63 billion. Therefore, there's a financial trade-off in the NP scenario. The total cost of production and investment will be higher to keep Indonesia energy security while achieving the renewable energy target. The ZC total generating capacity is 789.11 GW in 2050, with 675.89 GW comes from renewable energy sources while the rest is fossil fuel which act as a reserve power plant. However, Indonesia’s renewable energy potential capacity in 2020 is limited to 441.7 GW. The total cost of electricity production for ZC scenario is USD 134.06 billion. The ZC scenario results shows that Indonesia's current source of renewable energy potential capacity is insufficient to achieve 100% renewable energy mix in 2050.