DHF INCIDENTS MODELLING AND DYNAMIC MAPPING WITH CLIMATE FACTORS IN MALANG CITY

• Main Author: Sabathias, Dave
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/57695
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever, referred as DHF, is one of many infectious disease that can only be caused be dengue virus that spreads through mosquito bites, specifically from Aedes aegypti. DHF is a common disease in Indonesia, with tropical and subtropical areas as its center of spreading. Climate change is suspected to be one of the biggest influences of DHF spreading in Indonesia, especially Malang city. The purpose of this Final Project is to make a Generalized Linear Model with Poisson Regression or Binomial Negative Regression to predict the incidence rate of DHF in every state of Malang City, which is Klojen, Sukun, Kedung Kandang, Blimbing and Lowokwaru in relevance with climate factors and the incidence rate of DHF in the past. Every step in the making of the model, correlation analyses are needed to find which predictor variables are correlated with the response variables, therefore the best model that provides most accurate calculation is selected. Some aspects that are considered to choose the best model are highest R-squared value, smallest AIC value and smallest RMSE value. Spatial mapping with Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) is also made in this Final Project using ArcGIS program. This Final Project is also expected to be a form of preventive action for the future spreading of DHF in Malang.