ENERGY MANAGEMENT: FUEL SUPPLY – DEMAND BALANCE IN DISEQUILIBRIUM SYSTEM ANALYSIS TO STABILIZE FUTURE FUEL DEMAND

• Main Author: Mujiyanto, Sugeng
• Format: Dissertations
• Language: Indonesia
• Subjects: Pertambangan dan operasi berkaitan
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/58076
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

The balance of supply and demand for fuel is very important for energy security in a country. The price of fuel, especially gasoline (gasoline) is determined by the government based on certain formulas announced on a quarterly basis which can have an impact on distortions in the supply-demand balance system due to price differences from what should be. This study aims to develop disequilibrium model to obtain a mechanism for establishing the equilibrium price and identify the factors that influence the supply and demand for fuel, especially gasoline RON 88, RON 90, RON 92. The methodology is to utilize the parameters of the equilibrium model results for the imbalance model input and the quantitative results from the equilibrium model are used as the basis for forecasting the future using the Autoregresive Integrated Mooving Average (ARIMA). The results of the disequilibriume model are optimized using the iterative Bern-Hall-Hall-Hausman (BHHH) algorithm. Three (3) scenarios are prepared, namely optimistic, business as usual (BAU), and pessimistic. Scenario selection and implementation strategy used the survey method and an optimistic scenario was chosen. Implementation analysis uses the Strength Weakness Opportunity Threat (SWOT) method which can be used as the basis for policy recommendations. The results of this study indicate that the development of disequilibrium model can be used to obtain the factors that affect the supply and demand for fuel to stabilize the demand for fuel, especially gasoline in the future. The factors that affect the supply and demand for fuel are: price, Gross domestic product (GDP), refinery costs (production costs).