CLAIM RESERVE ESTIMATION IN THE EMPLOYMENT INJURY SECURITY (JKK) PROGRAM OF BPJS KETENAGAKERJAAN USING STOCHASTIC CHAIN LADDER METHOD

• Main Author: Mirna Asa Putri, Dwiyani
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/59581
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

The Employment Injury Security (JKK) Program organized by BPJS Ketenagakerjaan provides protection against the risks of accidents occurring in the employment relationship, including accidents that occur on the way from home to work or the way from work to home and diseases caused by the work environment (PAK) also an expansion of benefits in the form of a Return to Work Program. In its application, the payment of JKK claims cannot be resolved immediately which can be caused by various factors, including administrative problems and late reporting, treatment processes that require a long period of time for certain cases, occupational diseases that can only be detected after many years later and various other causes. So it is very important for BPJS Ketenagakerjaan to provide reserve funds to anticipate future claim payments. This research discusses the calculation of the estimated claims reserves using the stochastic Chain Ladder method with the Generalized Linear Model (GLM) method which can provide an interval estimates with a certain confidence value of the claim reserve value, so that it can be compared with the reserve estimation that has been carried out using the deterministic method of Basic Chain Ladder that only generates point estimates. In addition, in the GLM method, information can be obtained from the characteristics of claims severity at historical data. The results of data processing show that the claims severity is Gamma distributed, so that the estimation of claims reserves is carried out using the Gamma GLM approach. The estimated value of claim reserves is IDR.728.403.581.380 with a prediction error of 19.07% so that the estimated value is in the range of IDR.665.184.462.768 to IDR.791.622.699.992. Meanwhile, with the Chain Ladder method, an estimate of IDR.796,851,568,771 is obtained which is not included in the value of the total claim reserve interval from the Gamma GLM model approach. Based on the resulting MAPE value of 19.69%, indicating that the accuracy of the model can be assessed as good, and the MAPE value for the total claim size of 5.01% indicates a very good value.