MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF LEPTOSPIROSIS SPREAD WITH THE INFLUENCE OF CLIMATIC FACTORS.

• Main Author: Fiska, Nissa
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/60069
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

The epidemic of leptospirosis in humans occurs annually in Indonesia. Leptospirosis is a zoonotic disease caused by the pathogenic genus of leptospira that attacks animals and humans. The survival of leptospires in the environment is affected by temperature. The largest occurrence of leptospirosis in Indonesia is during the rainy season . In this study, we have developed mathematical models to investigate transmission dynamics between humans, animals, and a contaminated environment. We compared different leptospire transmission models involving rainfall, and temperature. Data used in this study were the incidence of leptospirosis, rainfall, and average temperature in Indonesia for the years 2010 to 2019. Because the results of the simulation of the model have approached the factual data, the results of this study showed that the incidence of leptospirosis in Indonesia can be explained well using a model of leptospirosis disease spread. Sensitivity analysis showed that the transmission rate of leptospires from a contaminated environment was the most important parameter for the total number of human cases. Rainfall and temperature are linearly related to the transmission rate from the contaminated environment to livestock, and the multiplication rate of the leptospires in the environment. As a result of substituting function of parameter into the model, the number of infected people has increased by more than double in the last ten years. It indicate that rainfall and temperature strongly contributes to leptospirosis transmission.