SCENARIO PLANNING OF THE FUTURE ELECTRICITY UTILITY BUSINESS TOWARDS INDONESIA POWER SECTOR REFORM: CASE STUDY PT PLN (PERSERO)

• Main Author: Aftarianto, Rizki
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/60952
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Deregulation of Indonesian Power Sector started in 1992 when the first Independent Power Producer (IPP) entered the power market under Power Purchase Agreement (PPA). Global trend in the energy sector leads to an increasing portion of renewable energy instead of developing more non-renewable energy. Massive technology, decreasing business development, and deregulation of power sector regulation in Indonesia became factors of increasing private participants of renewable energy power generation, following the massive target of power generation mix from renewable energy 23% by 2025. Economic growth of Indonesia declined into recession in Q3 – 2020 after two consecutive negative growth since Q2 – 2020 amid COVID-19 pandemic. National electricity demand was decreasing following strict people movement to contain the spread of COVID-19. Central government need to re-calculate the electricity capacity planning and may decrease the potential energy transition into renewable as stipulated on the National Electricity Business Plan (RUPTL). To overcome the future uncertainties of growing electricity demand, massive deregulation of power sector, and renewable energy transition, a scenario planning framework will be elaborated on this paper to determine multiple scenarios that may happen in the future electricity utility business, as the basis future planning for an electricity utility company.