SCENARIO PLANNING HUAWEI SMARTPHONE IMPROVEMENT IN INDONESIA MARKET

• Main Author: Andriani, Kiki
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/61384
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

In the past eight years, smartphone users have increased significantly year by year. The smartphone penetration rate in Indonesia market was about 63% based on total number of smartphone users in 2019. By forecasting the trend for the next five years, it is predicted that the penetration rate would reach up to 89.21%. Focusing on the latest technology, Huawei has developed their own mobile system called Huawei Mobile Service (HMS) as a replacement for Google Mobile Service (GMS) and tried to build their own ecosystem through the “1+8+N strategy”. The Industrial Revolution (IR 4.0) has changed the way of people lived, change their behaviour, environment, and social-political aspects; all of which influence the outcome of the future. Scenario planning will help organization to develop multiple plausible futures and take advantage of adaptation changes. The methodology used in this research is by adapting one of scenario planning methods: Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) framework. This method is used because of its capability to expand the range and develop scenarios, thus allowing users to do deeper analysis. CLA brings the idea of “up and down” analysis, where it promotes the business space for alternative future. The data collected in this study comes from various literature studies as well as through interviews, questionnaires, and Focus Group Discussion (FGD) with internal and external stakeholders. External environment is exercised using PESTLE analysis and for internal environment (transactional environment), this study utilizes VRIO analysis. The key vocal issue of this study is what would be people's perspectives on Chinese products, especially Huawei smartphone in the future. Based on data collection and analysis, the driving forces that potentially lead to critical uncertainties for the future of Huawei business are breaking paradigm (changing people’s perception) and market competition / demand / purchasing power. The result shows four scenario planning whereas each scenario has its own narratives, implications, options, and early warning signals. Later on, a business strategic plan can be drawn based on previous implications and warning signals, hence creating a sustainable business strategy for Huawei in the future.