DESIGN OF BPJS KETENAGAKERJAAN UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WITH STOCHASTIC APPROACH

• Main Author: Bahri, Zaiful
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/61594
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

The Goverment Law No. 37 of 2021 about Unemployement Insurance (UI) set some conditions regarding the implementation of UI porgram by BPJS Ketenagakerjaan. Some of the provisions include stipulating a contribution rate of 0.46% of the reported wages which is a contribution from the central government and the recomposition of the BPJS Ketenagakerjaan Accident Insurance and Death Insurance contribution programs and also determine cash benefits of 45% for the first 3 months and 25% for the next 3 months for eligible workers. In this study, a general social security program will be explained which includes the estimated number of layoffs, calculation of the amount of contribution and estimates of UI program funds. Some of the variables used in the calculation include predictions of the number of laid-off workers, distribution of wages for active workers and layoffs, and duration of unemployment. In predicting layoffs using the ARIMA Model, the best model is ARMA (1,1,1) with parameters ????1 = -0,135 and ????1 = 0,606 that is used to predict layoffs for the next one year. Moreover, the distribution of wages for active workers and layoffs will be determinde by fitting distribution to find the best distribution that fits of the data. and by looking at the lowest AIC and BIC values. The appropriate distribution for the wages of layoffs is the Normal Distribution with ???? = 3,438,107 and ???? = 325.237,5. The modeling of distribution active workers wages, the results obtained are Weibull Distribution with parameters ???? = 14.49 and ???? = 5,013,442. In addition, there is re-enter data from JHT claimants that are Normal distribution with parameters ???? = 7,892532 dan ? = 4,468749 which produces probability values for each category of length of time unemployed. The results of the calculation of these variables produce the total value of the contribution and total benefits of the JKP program for the next one year and describe the financial insufficiency of JKP funds.