APPLYING SCENARIO PLANNING IN THE FUTURE OF BNI EMERALD PRIORITY BANKING SERVICES

• Main Author: Satutikirono, Ratna
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/62880
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

The expected growth of affluent population in Indonesia, which consisted of mass-affluent population and high-net-worth individuals (with liquid assets of more than USD 1,000,000) in the future represents bunch of opportunities for capitalization in the wealth management business segments. The increasing number of affluent individuals has driven banks to provide an attractive wealth management product which offers priority banking product and/or services. With this fortunate opportunity, banks should come up with value propositions as “premium” products which facilitate high-end customers with exceptional attention. BNI Emerald is engaged in the provision of priority banking services and becomes one of the leading Indonesia’s state-owned enterprises that provides global wealth management. Apparently, BNI Emerald faced an intense competition with several players in priority banking service (which gradually provides complete wealth management products and/or services and able to go digitalize) and compete with investment products substitute offered by Fintech. The purpose of this research is to provide the comprehensive scenario planning in order to help BNI adapt and thrive in the future with high uncertainties that might impact the future of priority banking business of BNI Emerald. This research will be used the qualitative research methodology that utilize primary data and the secondary data to find the driving forces that will affect the priority banking business of BNI Emerald. The scenario planning is developed based on both external analysis (using PESTEL model, Competitor Analysis, and Porter 5 Forces) and followed by internal analysis (VRIO analysis) to further determine the current business conditions. The critical uncertainties are determined by conducting in-depth interviews with company’s experts and literature study. The key focal issue that has been identified is “How is the business of BNI Emerald’s priority banking services for the next 5 years in the face of future challenges” with the following driving forces are: Customer Needs, Technology Development and Adoption, Government Policy and Regulations, Trends or Lifestyle and Demographic Changes, Economic Climate (which consists of GDP, Inflation, Interest Rate, Market Competition, Pricing and Transaction Costs), Political Stability, and new Environment in Banking. Based on the interview result and analysis, the driving forces that have the most uncertain and have the highest impact to the key focal issue are Technology Development and Adoption, and Government Policy and Regulations. Based on the critical uncertainties that has been identified, there are 4 plausible scenarios that have been developed namely: The Grey Zone, The Laggards, The Late Majority, and The Best of Both Worlds. Early Warning Signals as the leading indicators of each scenario for the next 5 years uses the measures from technology, operations, and regulations. Monitor the early warning signals by the management on a regular basis to adopt the suitable strategy based on options that have been developed on each of the scenario framework.