MODEL OF THE SPREAD OF COVID-19 WITH VACCINATION AND WANING IMMUNITY

• Main Author: OKTAVIANA, WIDYA
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/63358
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Being the agent of Covid-19, SARS-CoV-2 has harmed health and economy in countries worldwide since its emergence at the end of 2019. The non-pharmaceutical interventions were carried out but were still considered ineffective in preventing further infections. Therefore, vaccination is believed to reduce transmission. The decreased of immunity after being recovered and vaccinated is an interesting and essential thing to study. In this thesis, we developed a mathematical model to describe the Covid-19 transmission, taking into account vaccination/booster and waning immunity factor. The developed model provides two equilibrium conditions: disease-free and disease-endemic conditions. Disease-free conditions will be stable if the basic reproduction number R0 < 1. Based on sensitivity simulation, the vaccination rate has a significant effect in reducing the value of R0. For Indonesia, the prediction of the spread of Covid-19 will lead to a disease-free condition if the transmission rate can be kept as small as possible. Meanwhile, in Malaysia, the prediction of dynamics leads to disease-endemic conditions. However, by increasing the vaccination rate, there will be no spread of disease in the population in Malaysia.