EVALUASI EFEKTIVITAS SKENARIO PELAKSANAAN PROGRAM CITARUM HARUM DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN MODEL DINAMIKA SISTEM (STUDI KASUS: SUB-DAERAH ALIRAN SUNGAI CIKAPUNDUNG)

• Main Author: Criston H Purba, David
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Subjects: Teknik saniter dan perkotaan; teknik perlindungan lingkungan
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/64122
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Abstract: The Cikapundung River Basin is one of the tributaries of the Citarum watershed which has the main function as the main drainage of the city of Bandung and is a source of raw water. Increased economic activity encourages changes in land cover, increased population pressure on the environment, and increased pollution that has the potential to cause damage and pollution in the Cikapundung watershed. The problem of watershed management is complex because it consists of various parameters that are interconnected and inseparable, which is indicated by the many program components that must be handled in the Citarum Harum Program. In this study, the programs analyzed were 6 out of 12 programs. The purpose of this study is to formulate a system dynamic model that connects various environmental, social, and economic parameters involved in the Cikapundung subwatershed system, and determine the effectiveness of the implementation of the Citarum Harum program in the Cikapundung sub-watershed as one of the model simulation scenarios and finally can provide recommendations in increasing program effectiveness. This study uses a quantitative approach by using the system dynamic method. Secondary data processing using descriptive and spatial data obtained from various agencies, carried out through Geoprocessing analysis using ArcMap software; linear regression analysis; analysis of the rate of erosion using the USLE method; design flood analysis with rational method; water availability analysis using the Pennman method and the F.J Mock method; analysis of water demand with the method of estimating water demand factors; pollution load analysis using the pollutant load factor estimation method; analysis of pollutant dynamics in rivers using the Streeter-Phelps method. Data processing is carried out to obtain the mathematical relationship that underlies the behavioral structure of the system dynamic model. The validation of the system dynamic model that was formed was analyzed using the AME (Absolute Mean Error) and AVE (Absolute Variance Error) assessment methods. The effectiveness of the scenario program is carried out by comparing the results of the system dynamic simulation with and without treatment. Based on the results of data processing and analysis, a system dynamic model is obtained which divides the Cikapundung Sub-watershed into 3 component segments with a total of 33 sub-models, with each segment having 11 sub-models, namely the land cover change sub-model, erosion and sedimentation sub-model, flood inundation sub-model, mainstay discharge sub-model, water iv demand sub-model, water pollution sub-model, water quality and water treatment sub-model, economic sub-model, population and employment sub-model, watershed health index sub-model, and watershed management program submodel. Based on the comparison of the simulation results of the system dynamic model with historical data, it is stated that the system dynamic model is valid in following the behavior of the Cikapundung watershed real system as indicated by the AME (Absolute Mean Error) and/or AVE (Absolute Variance Error) values of less than 10%. The validated model is used to test the effectiveness of the Citarum Harum Program in the Cikapundung Sub-watershed, where this program is considered effective in improving watershed health if the targets set are fully implemented as indicated by the decreasing value of the watershed health index in the upstream and middle segments, each reaching 5.73% and 1.16% in 2025. Thus, the three segments are categorized as moderate watersheds. The addition of recommended scenarios is considered effective in increasing the effectiveness of the Citarum Harum program in improving the health of the Cikapundung watershed in the three segments as indicated by the decreasing value of the watershed health index in the upstream, middle and downstream segments, reaching 15.28%, 9.01% and 7.96% respectively in 2025. The upstream segment can be categorized as a watershed with moderately good health, while the middle and downstream segments are categorized as moderate to moderately good.