PROPOSED FORECASTING AND INVENTORY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM TO REDUCE OUT OF STOCK IN PT AAP

• Main Author: Muhammad Amris Amrullah, Kiagus
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Subjects: Manajemen umum
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/65074
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

PT AAP is one of the distributors and importers for growth media and hydroponic nutrition in Bogor, West Java. One of the products marketed by PT AAP is rockwool which is imported from the Netherlands. The problem faced by PT AAP is the availability of rockwool stock in the warehouse that is often out of stock so that some customers cannot get the product. The objective of this research is to overcome out of stock from rockwool products by providing a forecasting and inventory management system. The method used in this research is starting from business issue exploration through interviews and historical data collection for root cause analysis using Current Reality Tree. The company does not have appropriate safety stock and the company does not have appropriate forecast method were chosen as the root cause to be solved because it is controllable root cause. Forecasting and inventory management system is proposed to address the root causes. The determination of the forecasting system is done by comparing 8 time series analysis methods based on the last 3 years and the determination of the inventory management system is done by comparing 3 models of the inventory management system based on the last 1 year. The result of analysis of alternatives shows that simple exponential smoothing with ? of 0.38 was chosen as the forecast method because it has the smallest forecast error, namely Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD). The fixed-order quantity model was chosen as inventory management system because it provides the lowest total cost and is possible to apply to the current warehouse capacity. In addition, safety stock analysis shows that the amount of safety stock applied by the company is still below the required amount so that it can be the cause of out of stock. Implementation of forecasting and inventory management system at PT AAP consists of 4 stages, which are preparation stage for 2 weeks, planning stage for 2 weeks, action stage for 6 months, and evaluation stage at the end of each month.