MATHEMATICAL MODELLING FOR DETERMINING TRANSMISSION RATE OF COVID-19 FOR 30 SUBDISTRICTS IN BANDUNG CITY

• Main Author: Juwita, Syifa
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/65295
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

COVID-19, known to the public as the “virus covid” , is an outbreak caused by a virus that comes from the coronavirus family, more precisely SARS-CoV 2. This virus has spread massively including to Indonesia in just a few months and at the beginning of the occurrence 50% of the cases is from urban areas. Including the city of Bandung as the fifth most populous city in Indonesia. Knowing about the pattern of the spread of the virus is an important part of making the right policy for the region. In this study, the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Death (SIRD) model was used to review the characteristics of the transmission rate of COVID-19 in 30 sub-districts in Bandung City as seen from the effective reproduction number and review this number against government policies that have been implemented, so that it can be concluded that the policy the most appropriate for the sub-districts in the city of Bandung. Based on the observation that the value of the effective reproduction number is very sensitive to the rate of cure, so that observations are not only made on the effective reproduction number but also the availability of active cases. Using the parameters obtained by the methods used, such as Ridge Regression and Richards Curve, it is also possible to estimate the short-term spread. The resulting model formulation is a data-based analysis using public COVID-19 data sourced from PUSICOV Bandung from 27 September 2020 to 28 March 2022.