MATHEMATICAL MODELING FOR IMPACT OF CHANGING COVID-19 CASES ON TUBERCULOSIS CARE CASCADE

• Main Author: Khairunisa, Alya
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/65428
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Tuberculosis (TB) is an infectious disease that causes high mortality cases throughout the world. TB is caused by the bacterium mycobacterium tuberculosis and is transmitted through the air. Individuals infected with TB need to carry out treatment as recommended, which is 6-9 months of taking medication according to the prescribed dose. In this study, a mathematical model was built to review the dynamics of TB care services. Numerical simulations were carried out to obtain parameter estimates using data in Indonesia, especially in the city of Bandung. Then from the parameter values that have been obtained, a numerical simulation is carried out by reviewing the effects that occur due to the disruption of COVID-19 on parameters related to the TB treatment process. The numerical simulation results show that the presence of COVID-19 disruption to a parameter in a particular disorder variation can lead to an increase in mortality cases, active infection population, and latent infection population in the next 10 years if there is no increase in TB care services. The numerical simulation results show that the most influential parameter on the TB care service system is the proportion of people who continue treatment after a positive diagnosis.