SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING FOR BOD TOTAL MAXIMUM DAILY LOAD (TMDL) IN UPPER CITARUM WATERSHED
The Upper Citarum watershed has a vital role in maintaining the sustainability of socio- economic activities and the preservation of the Citarum watershed ecosystem. On the other hand, the Upper Citarum sub-watershed also contributes 50,7% of the BOD pollution load in the Citarum watershed. Thi...
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| Format: | Final Project |
| Language: | Indonesia |
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| Online Access: | https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/65826 |
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| Institution: | Institut Teknologi Bandung |
| Language: | Indonesia |
| Summary: | The Upper Citarum watershed has a vital role in maintaining the sustainability of socio-
economic activities and the preservation of the Citarum watershed ecosystem. On the
other hand, the Upper Citarum sub-watershed also contributes 50,7% of the BOD
pollution load in the Citarum watershed. This value is equivalent to four times the value
of the Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDL). The problem of water pollution in Upper
Citarum is complex because it involves interdisciplinary interactions between socio-
economic and bio-physical-chemical components. Therefore, this study uses a systems
approach with DPSIR and System Dynamics analysis tools. The results of the
conceptual analysis show that the problem of water resources in Upper Citarum is
driven by population and industry growth which is not accompanied by the
development of sanitation infrastructure and strong law enforcement. These factors
affect BOD pollution directly (through the pollution load) and indirectly through
hydrological disturbances. Based on the conceptual analysis, a formal model is made
in the form of a stock-flow diagram (SFD) consisting of seven sub-models. The results
of historical simulations spanning 2014 to 2019 have been validated with Nash-
Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and behavior pattern tests. An advanced simulation with a
span of 2014 to 2030 shows that the pollution load will fluctuate from 243,06 tons/day
in 2014 to 307,24 tons/day in 2030. As a result, the waste load allocation (WLA) will
fluctuate from -201,15 tons/day in 2014 to -257,71 tons/day in 2030. Even so, the BOD
concentration value does not show a significant increasing trend due to the influence
of river discharge pattern that is influenced by rainfall. |
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