IMPLEMENTATION OF PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS (PSHA) MODEL FOR SEISMIC HAZARDS ANALYSIS IN NORTH SULAWESI AND SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT IN MANADO CITY

• Main Author: M.Zulkifli
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/66529
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

North Sulawesi Province is in an active seismic zone; therefore, it experiences a relatively high seismicity. In contrast, the population explosion and massive infrastructure was developed in this province. Based on these issues, it is essential to conduct seismic hazard analysis and seismic risk assessment to reduce earthquake effects. In this study, the PSHA (probabilistic seismic hazard analysis) estimation from two seismic source models to describe the potential for seismic hazard in North Sulawesi. From the first model using the earthquake source model from Pusgen (Indonesian National Earthquake Center), the PGA (peak ground acceleration) value in North Sulawesi is from 0.20 g to 0.55 g. While the distribution of the second model of PGA (Hayes, 2018) is from 0.25 g to 0.60 g. In general, both Models indicate the seismic hazard in North Sulawesi Province is dominantly influenced by the Sulawesi Megathrust subduction activity. Furthermore, the results of seismic risk assessment from model 1 and model 2 show total economic losses in Manado city are (IDR 36.692.478.800) and (IDR 66.036.944.200) respectively. Both models revealed the maximum losses in the center of Manado city, namely: Wenang, Singkil, Sario and Tuminting sub-districts due to having relatively highest building density. On the other hand, the area with minimum losses is in Bunaken sub-district, due to having realtively lowest building density.