MODELING THE RISK OF FINANCIAL LOSSES DUE TO TECTONIC EARTHQUAKES: CASE STUDY ON DAMAGES TO SCHOOL BUILDINGS IN PADANG CITY

• Main Author: Pratama, Randhy
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/67300
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Indonesia is the largest archipelago consisting of approximately 17,000 islands and is at the meeting point of three big tectonic plates: the Eurasian (Sunda), Australian, and Pacific Plates. The occurrences of earthquakes may be caused by collisions between the earth’s plates; active faults; volcanic eruptions; and other causes such as landslides, avalanches, and the collapse of heavy rocks. Earthquakes in Indonesia may cause large financial losses due to damages on buildings and infrastructures. For examples, according to the data from Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB), the 2009 earthquake in Padang resulted in financial losses of approximately IDR 28.5 trillion; and the 2018 earthquake and tsunami in Southeast Sulawesi resulted in financial losses of approximately IDR 23.1 trillion. An Earthquake Catastrophe (CAT) model may be used to model the risk of financial losses due to tectonic earthquakes. The purpose of this study is to model the risk of financial losses due to damages on school buildings in Padang City caused by tectonic earthquakes. The study focuses on the formation of an Event Loss Table (ELT) by utilizing the hazard, inventory, and the vulnerability modules in an Earthquake CAT model. In building the ELT, collective risk models are used. Monte- Carlo simulations are used to generate multi-scenarios of the risk of financial losses in the ELT. The topic discussed in this paper is part of a series of studies in building a State Financial Risk Model based on a Disaster Risk Financing, funded by Lembaga Pengelola Dana Pendidikan (LPDP), Indonesia Ministry of Finance.