INVESTMENT RISK ANALYSIS OF JAKARTA - CIKAMPEK II SELATAN TOLL ROAD

• Main Author: Fitri Rahmadyanti, Annisa
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/67974
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

The availability of infrastructure is important in supporting economic activities. The toll road is one of the infrastructures that have undergone extensive development over the past five years. It benefits the Indonesian community by shortening travel time and increasing economic growth. One of the toll roads that are currently under construction is the Jakarta - Cikampek II Selatan which is being held by one of the subsidiaries of PT Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk, namely PT Jasamarga Japek Selatan. Toll road development is a long-term investment that requires very large investment costs and a long payback period. Potential risks could hinder the development of toll roads and would delay the payback period further. Such as in the land acquisition and construction phase which has the highest potential risk. After the development of the toll road and its start operating, the second highest potential risk is located in the operational phase. Due to the delay in the land acquisition that caused the delay in the construction schedule, there is an estimation difference between the beginning financial feasibility in 2017 with the current condition of adjusted financial feasibility in 2022, when the toll road is currently under construction. Financial feasibility analysis is not complete without risk analysis. Thus, investment risk analysis has to be conducted. Consider if there are significant changes from planning to realizing the toll road project currently under construction and analyze potential risks. The adjusted financial feasibility results showed a payback period of 9.65 years, a discounted payback period of 19.41 years, an NPV of IDR 8,134,079 Trillion, and an IRR of 12.19% is greater than 10.65%, the cost of capital. Since all the results exceed the acceptance criteria, this toll road project is feasible, although it is calculated using the latest adjustment assumptions. However, from the comparison result, the adjusted result has a lower IRR and discounted payback period compared to the beginning financial feasibility of 12.32% IRR and 18 years of discounted payback period. Using the sensitivity analysis, there are 4 sensitive variables that are identified to impact NPV results greatly. According to the scenario analysis result, each of the scenario’s payback period, discounted payback period, NPV, and IRR is considered to be accepted. It showed that the toll road project is feasible in pessimistic, most likely, and optimistic scenarios. Based on the risk management result, there are 1 extreme risk, 2 high risks, 5 moderate risks, and 1 low risk. A risk mitigation plan helps to reduce each potential risk’s probability or impact.