A COMPARISON OF THE COX PROPORTIONAL HAZARD MODEL AND THE 4TH INDONESIA MORTALITY TABLE IN PREDICTING THE PROBABILITY OF THE DURATION TO TERMINATION OF THE COMPENSATION OF WORK-RELATED ACCIDENT

• Main Author: Vercelli Tanto, Celline
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/68361
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

In Indonesia, scientific research with topics related to workers compensation insurance business is still not widely reported to the public. The financial losses compensations due to work-related accidents in Indonesia are given by the Badan Penyelenggara Jaminan Sosial (BPJS) Ketenagakerjaan Indonesia (Indonesia National Social Security Agency for Employment), and by private general insurance companies. To estimate the incurred but not-reported (IBNR) claims of the workrelated accidents, the probability of the duration between the occurrence of an accident and the time of termination of the claims’ payments need to be predicted. Such accidents analyzed in this study are those which caused permanent disability where the termination of claims payments is due to death or the end of medical treatments. Due to the inaccessibility to an Indonesian dataset, the workers compensation claims data from a “large public entity pool” in the United States of America is analyzed instead. The intention is that the results of this study could be useful to the development of the workers compensation insurance in Indonesia. In this study, the behavior of the 2011 US Life Tables and the Tabel Mortalita Indonesia IV (the 4th Indonesia Mortality Table) is compared. Based on the result, the Cox Proportional Hazard model is fitted to the workers compensation claims data and the probability of the duration to termination of claims payments is predicted. The predicted probabilities are then compared with those obtained by using the 4th Indonesia Mortality Table.