STOCK VALUATION AND IMPLEMENTATION OF VOLUME THEORY ON COAL MINING STOCK

• Main Author: Nanhidayah, Anisa
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Subjects: Manajemen umum
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/68837
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

The coal industry is one of the most attractive industries for investment. The recovery of the economy after the COVID-19 pandemic, the acceleration of PTLU's energy, the high price of natural gas made demand high coal. Due to the high demand for coal, the price of coal has increased significantly. In investing in coal stocks, it is necessary to calculate the intrinsic value to find out the fair price compared to the current circulation price. Based on data obtained from the Indonesian stock exchange, there are 10 coal companies with the highest growth in 2021 and a large market cap with complete financial statement data. The results obtained are BYAN, ADRO, PTBA, ITMG, HRUM, DSSA, INDY, BSSR, MBAP, and SMMT. The valuation method used is absolute valuation, namely discounted cash flow to equity and discounted cash flow to the firm. Another valuation method is relative valuation by taking a comparison of PER, PBV, EV/EBITDA between companies. In making the right time decision when buying shares, you can use volume theory based on Dow Theory number 5, namely trading volume confirms the trend. The results of the calculation of the valuation using the DCF-FCFE method show that the largest safety margin for INDY issuers is 94% and the lowest is HRUM issuers, which is -5%. Meanwhile, with the DCF-FCFF method, the largest margin of safety for ITMG issuers is 79% and the lowest is SMMT issuers, which is -16%. Another method used is relative valuation by using PER comparison, it is found that PTBA, ITMG, BSSR MBAP, and SMMT have lower PER compared to other companies. While looking at the PBV value, INDY and SMMT have a PBV below 1. In comparison, almost all companies have EV/EBITDA values below 6 except HRUM with an EV/EBITDA ratio of 12.98. Technically based on Dow Theory number 5, the market price increases which is followed by an increase in transaction volume, it can be said if the market is in an up phase, and vice versa, the price decreases followed by an increase in transaction volume, it can be confirmed if the market is in down phase. For investors in making investment decisions, return to the profile of each risk and for issuer management by optimizing production and operational control so that optimal coal quality is obtained, as well as business expansion in the future for the company's business sustainability.