DEVELOPING OF NATIONAL ENERGY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM MODEL TO ACHIEVE SIMULTANEOUS AND BALANCED OF ENERGY SECURITY, ENERGY INDEPENDENCY, SUSTAINABILITY AND PARIS AGREEMENT BASED ON SYSTEM DYNAMICS

• Main Author: Hutrindo, Erick
• Format: Dissertations
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/70082
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

The Government Regulation Number 79 of 2014 concerning the National Energy Policy (KEN) which is a guidance document for long-term energy management that aims to guide energy management for the long term provide direction for national energy management in order to realize energy independence and energy security to support sustainable national development. Furthermore, through the Presidential Regulation Number 59 of 2017 that focusing the Implementation of Achieving Sustainable Development Goals, the government affirms the steps to realize sustainable national development. In 2016, the Government ratified the Paris Agreement through Law No. 16, in which Indonesia agreed to be involved in an international convention that seeks to reduce the global average temperature < 2°C above the earth's temperature during the pre-industrial era, in the second half of this century, by reduce global Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, one of which comes from the energy sector. The targets of these three regulatory objectives must be realized through a well-planned energy management system (EMS). This study aims to answer these conditions through modeling that represents the National SPE to achieve: (i) energy security, (ii) energy independence, sustainable development goals and (iv) the Paris Agreement simultaneously and in balance based on system dynamics. A deductive approach is used to identify and determine the basic indicators of the four goals, which consist of: 6 energy security, 1 energy independence, 3 sustainable development goals and 1 Paris Agreement. However, there is 1 identical basic indicator which identified on energy security sustainable development goals and the Paris Agreement, so that in total we get 9 basic indicators of achieving the EMS goals. In addition, the basic indicators are grouped into aspects: economic, social and environmental. The 6 basic indicators are included in three aspects which are the economic, social and environmental. The main variable of the SPE objectives is derived from the basic indicators. The base year for the analysis is 2019. The GDP per capital is the main variable of the economic aspects which is targeted at 23,199 USD in the Indonesia Vision 2045 document or will increase of 6 times greater than the base year. In other side, The GHG emissions as the main variable in environmental aspects which targeted to be lower than 87 MMT CO2-eq in 2060, or down by 87.5% is in the long-term strategy net zero emissions (LTS NZE) document. Meanwhile, the employment as the social variable is expected to continue to increase. Those targets will be met by SPE through primary energy supply of 1,000 MTOE by 2050, where electricity consumption is targeted at 7,000 kWh/capita. The GHG emission will be set as a milestone in the final year of the analysis, as well as a constraint for the EMS target. This study applied quantitative is carried out on the constraints to determine the main SPE strategies and scenarios. The target of peak GHG emissions to occur in 2030 is 1,164 MMT CO2-eq, which come from burning 370 MTOE of fossil energy (74% of the total primary energy supply) and 44% of fossil energy is used as fuel for power generation. Furthermore, emissions will gradually decrease to 87 MMT CO2-eq in 2060, along with a decrease fossil energy burning until the remaining 28 MTOE (2% of the total primary energy supply). The total GHG emission must be reduced is15,466 MMT CO2-eq. from 2030 to 2060 with the assumption no additional new fossil generating capacity since 2030, and the termination of the operation of fossil generators will have entered their economic age (normal retirement) that reduce GHG emissions by 8,378 MMT CO2-eq (54.2%) including early retirement in 2035 to 2044 that was indicated to reduce emissions of 10,430 MMT CO2-eq (67.4%). Two assumptions above have not been able to achieve the GHG emission reduction target. The use of carbon sequestration technology since 2044 has become an alternative to capture the remaining existing GHG emissions, especially emissions from non-generating plants. Efficiency strategy has the potential to reduce GHG emissions in terms of Energy intensity as one of the efficiency parameters is targeted to decrease by 2% per year. In 2055, Indonesia’s energy intensity will reach the same position as Japan and Germany have today, which is 103 TOE/Million Rupiah. Indonesia's EMS must be efficient, where electrification on the energy demand side is one strategy to increase efficiency while making it easier to manage GHG emissions. In 2030, the supply of NRE will increase sharply in terms of meet additional energy demand and replacing the supply of fossil energy which has begun to be reduced. The average growth of NRE supply reaches 4.5% per year. In addition, 2 SPE scenarios were selected based on an analysis of the constraints, namely: (i) normal retirement and (ii) early retirement. Normal retirement scenarios applied the following strategies: normal retirement of fossil power, use of carbon capture and storage (CCS) or carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) technology, and electrification on demand side. In addition, early retirement scenarios applied the following strategies: early retirement of fossil power, use of carbon capture and storage (CCS) or carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) technology, and electrification on demand side. The model is developed based on system dynamics, which includes EMS and EMS objectives. It is divided into sub-models: energy demand and energy supply. The objectives of the EMS are grouped into sub-models: economic, social and environmental. The main variables of each EMS objective sub-model have a reciprocal relationship with the EMS and interact reciprocally through the EMS. Furthermore, the scenario is simulated on the model that analyze the achievement of the four SPE goals through the 9 basic indicators that have been set.