PREDICTION OF THE NUMBER OF ROOFTOP PLTS USERS IN THE WEST JAVA SUBSYSTEM WITH A DYNAMIC SYSTEM MODEL

• Main Author: Pratiwi, Ajeng
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/70083
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Prediction of adopters and penetration of rooftop PV into a system or subsystem is very important because rooftop PV are renewable energy that is intermittent and non-dispatchable. Indonesia is located on the equator with a tropical climate and it is exposed to the sun all year round, the use of solar rooftop has a promising future. Utilization of sunlight used by electricity customers in the form of rooftop PV is interesting because it can supply electrical energy independently. Because rooftop PV is a new technology, predictions from rooftop PV users are calculated using the Bass Diffusion Model. The penetration of rooftop PLTS resulted in a decrease in demand on the utility side which resulted in an increase in the Cost of Supply (BPP). The increase in BPP causes an increase in electricity subsidies, when there is an increase in subsidies, the government will have a limited ability to subsidize electricity. The phenomenon of the Utility Death Spiral in this study is shown when the penetration of the rooftop PLTS is not limited to the grid resulted a very high adoption rate that made almost the entire community switch to becoming PV customers. This causes the BPP to increase very sharply and then drop to 0, this shows that there is no more capacity that can be generated by utilities and subsidies reach the limit of the government's ability which results in the government being unable to provide subsidies anymore.