DETERMINATION OF PREDICTOR AREAS AFFECTING RAINFALL VARIABILITY IN NORTHERN SUMATRA
The predictor area contains weather factors that dominantly influence rainfall in an area. The most dominant predictor variable can be located in certain areas that cover various atmospheric phenomena in the data period used. The area on the index of the selected predictor variable will be used as t...
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| Format: | Final Project |
| Language: | Indonesia |
| Online Access: | https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/70229 |
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| Institution: | Institut Teknologi Bandung |
| Language: | Indonesia |
| Summary: | The predictor area contains weather factors that dominantly influence rainfall in an area. The most dominant predictor variable can be located in certain areas that cover various atmospheric phenomena in the data period used. The area on the index of the selected predictor variable will be used as the predictor area. In previous studies, there were domains/areas that were used as predictor areas which were generally used as a reference in research in the form of multiple windows of the monsoon index. When this index was used for the Indonesian region, the domain was quite representative in the monsoon region but not so good in northern Sumatra, so it was considered necessary to find an index that was more specific and that was more closely related to the weather in that area
In this study, rainfall data will be processed using the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) to obtain the most dominant spatial and temporal patterns contributing to rainfall variability in the study area. In the temporal pattern, the EOF score will be correlated spatially with the predictor variable. The results of the spatial correlation will visualize in which areas the predictor variables have a strong and moderate correlation with rainfall in northern Sumatra.
The results of the study found that rainfall in the northern part of Sumatra has a strong correlation with many predictor variables including Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR), Zonal wind at 850hPa (V850), Meridional wind at 850hPa (U850), Surface air temperature at 2 meters (T2M), dan Air Temperature at 850hPa (T850) variables. This variable is considered important in analyzing rainfall in the study area so that it strengthens the notion that the selected area can be used as an additional predictor area with other monsoon predictor areas. |
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