STUDY OF THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE VARIATION ON IRRIGATION AND NON-IRRIGATION RICE PRODUCTIVITY BASED ON CROP PRODUCTIVITY SIMULATION USING AQUACROP MODEL (CASE STUDY OF JAVA ISLAND)

• Main Author: Aprilina, Kharisma
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/70328
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Java Island's climate pattern is generally known to be monsoonal, however, recent research has shown that there are semi-annual climate patterns that influence several areas on the island. This variation of climate patterns can be reflected in the different responses given by other variables that depend on the climate parameters. In addition, the variation in climate pattern can be confirmed by clustering the predictor variables, such as rainfall, maximum, and minimum temperature simultaneously. Crop productivity is one of the response variables that depend on variations of climate patterns. This study aims to measure the difference in the response of irrigated and non-irrigated rice crop productivity results from the Aquacrop crop modeling simulation to the influence of variations in climate patterns. The result of the k-means clustering method produces two clusters of climate regions. A non-parametric difference test was conducted to determine the difference in predictor variables and response variables between groups of climate areas. The result of the principal component analysis showed that the maximum and minimum temperature variables are the variables that most contribute to the determination of the clustering area using the k-means method compared to the rainfall variable. This study has calculated the probability of the rice productivity resulting from the Aquacrop simulation during La Nina years that will be higher than or equal to the mean value of rice productivity during neutral years, and the probability of those during El Nino years that will be smaller than the mean value of rice productivity during neutral years. However, the validation between the actual irrigated and rainfed rice productivity with the ones resulting from the Aquacrop simulation from the year 2001-2014 showed low correlation values that vary between negative and positive values. Meanwhile, the validation on the El Nino composite years generally showed positive correlation values, while for the neutral and La Nina composite years resulted in varying correlation values between negative and positive correlation.