MODELING OF INDONESIAN ELECTRICITY DEMAND RELATED TO THE ACHIVEMENT NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY GOALS.
Electricity is one of the basic needs that are very important for human life, where almost all human activities related to power. The limited supply of electricity to make its utilization should be done as well as possible, or in other words, the energy efficiency must be increased and energy mus...
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| Format: | Theses |
| Language: | Indonesia |
| Online Access: | https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/70398 |
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| Institution: | Institut Teknologi Bandung |
| Language: | Indonesia |
| Summary: | Electricity is one of the basic needs that are very important for human life, where
almost all human activities related to power. The limited supply of electricity to
make its utilization should be done as well as possible, or in other words, the
energy efficiency must be increased and energy must be decreased. Onedirectional
causality of economic growth and electricity consumption shows that
the application of conservation policies to reduce electricity consumption had no
effect on GDP as one indicator of economic growth. In addition of these findings
also suggest that the GDP variable can be used as a reference in building a model
of the demand for electricity. Modelling the national electricity demand is
influenced by several variables, including the GDP, electricity prices, the number
of installed capacity and total electricity consumption in the previous year. Based
on RUPTL (General Plan of Power Generation), plan to increase the number of
installed capacity in 2025 reached electricity capacity of 129 GWs. This means
the target amount of installed capacity targeted KEN (National Energy Policy)
amounting to 115 GW could be achieved if the plan can be realized, with KEN’s
target for the amount of electricity consumption per capita in 2025 amounting to
2,500 kWh. Forecasting demand for electricity in 2025 for scenario 1 is equal to
2,067.55 KWh per capita with GDP growth rate refers to RPJMN. Forecasting
demand for electricity in 2025 for scenario 2 is equal to 2,526.73 KWh per capita
with GDP growth rate of 9%. Based on these results, it can be concluded that
although the target of installed electricity capacity has been reached, it must be
balanced with high GDP growth so that the target number of targeted KEN power
consumption can also be achieved. To produce electricity based on it demand,
needs coal around 156 million tonnes for scenario 1 and 196 million tonnes for
scenario 2. |
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