WEST JAVA COAST'S ADAPTIVE CAPACITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE USING DYNAMIC SYSTEM MODEL

• Main Author: Fauzi, Isnan
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/70404
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change Assessment Report (IPCC AR) 5 shows the worst scenario of climate change, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. It triggers sea level rise which threats the resilience of West Java. The purposes of this research are assessing the resilience of West Java coastal area on sea level rise and determining the best scenario to increase its resilience. The simulation of sea level rise (SLR) is executed within 2006 to 2100 based on the ocean heat flux and ice melting databases by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) 5. The dynamic model is used to set intervention scenarios on a coastal system. Topography of Pangandaran is dominated by the height of more than 10 meter (82,15%), while Cirebon is dominated by 2 – 10 meter (58.40%). The result of sea level rise in 2100 which has been added tide, Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), storms surge, and Kelvin wave is 148.09 cm in Pangandaran and 115.65 cm in Cirebon then converted to be an asset inundation map. The inundation percentage in 2100 of Pangandaran is 1.94%, while Cirebon is 8.94%. The vulnerability of Pangandaran is 3.25% and 5.45% for Cirebon. The result shows us the best scenario for both regencies is protect which has adaptive capacity value of 96.30% and 76.65% respectively.