PENGEMBANGAN MODEL DINAMIKA SISTEM UNTUK EVALUASI EMISI CO2 DARI ADOPSI MOBIL LISTRIK

• Main Author: Putra Budiyanto, Aditya
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/70878
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

With the increase of CO2 emission from transportation sector, the pressure to adopt an electric vehicle (EV) for reducing the emission of CO2 also increases. Successful experience of some developed industrial countries in promoting the adoption of EV for CO2 emission reduction has been motivating many countries including developing countries for embarking on the same policies of EV promotion. This research develops a model using system dynamics approach for analyzing the impact of EV adoption on CO2 emission in developing countries. Differences between developing and developed countries such as different electricity sources or different EV standards may result in different CO2 emission from adopting electric vehicle. The model comprises four sectors, i.e., Transportation Sector, Market Sector, Energy Sector, and Emission Sector. The process of EV adoption is depicted in the Transportation Sector using the so-called Bass diffusion model. The Market Sector exhibits the potential demands for cars, both for EV and fossil fueled vehicles, that is modeled as a function of GNI PPP (Gross National Income Purchasing Power Parity). The Emission Sector depicts the emission of CO2 from the Transportation Sector and the Energy Sector. The parameters of the model that relate to the conditions of developing countries were estimated using data representing the condition of Indonesia as a developing countries, while general parameters were determined using general standards applied for them. The type of EV considered in the model was limited to Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV). The simulation results exhibit that instead of reducing CO2 emission, the aggressive increase of EV in the developing country’s circumstances where the energy mix is yet dominated by fossil-based energy sources potentially increase the CO2 emission. Despite reduction of CO2 emission in the Transportation Sector, the growing use of EV is increasing demand for electricity supply which results in the increase of CO2 emission from its production process due to the domination of fossil-based fuels used in the Energy Sector. Thus, the aggressive promotion of EV adoption without change in the energy mix – from the domination of fossilbased fuels to the intensive use of new renewable energy (NRE) – will merely shift the source of CO2 emission from the Transportation Sector to the Energy Sector. In addition, the simulation results show that higher EV efficiency in terms of the battery of EV used, has potential for reducing further the CO2 emission as the demand for the electricity supply Pengembangan Model Dinamika untuk Sistem Evaluasi Emisi CO2 dari Adopsi Mobil Listrik Aditya Putra Budiyanto 13418070 decreased. It implies that standardization of EV efficiency is necessary to support effective policy in EV promotion.