FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY STUDY OF CITY GAS DEVELOPMENT IN BINTARO AREA (CASE STUDY: PERUSAHAAN GAS NEGARA TBK.)

• Main Author: Zaki Gandara, Muhammad
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Subjects: Manajemen umum
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/71916
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

To implement one of Indonesian Government’s national long-term planning to diversifiy its plethora of energy sources ranging from fossil fuels to renewable energies while serves as a bridge between those two, a natural gas distribution network is developed. Mandated from the Indonesian Government, PT. Perusahaan Gas Negara has been developing and managing its large network of gas distributions across Indonesia. The business lines PGN has caters to all types of customer segments, ranging from industrials, commercials, and households. In this research, the financial feasibility for households and commercials customer segment in Bintaro Area is initiated. In order to conduct the financial feasibility study, several data related to the study must be collected. Among the data collected, is the data of gas selling price for customers. In this research, there are two natural gas selling prices, which are Government-determined gas selling price of Rp. 6000/M3 and PGN natural gas determined selling price of Rp. 10000/M3. Using the defined assumptions, it is found that both selling prices is not feasible if PGN using 100% of its own equity. Therefore, a mix of debt/equity for this project is conducted. Assuming the determined value for its lending interest rate and tenor is 10% and 10 year respectively, it is shown that the project is feasible if the mix of debt/equity is 15% / 85%. Using this condition, a sensitivity analysis and monte carlo simulation are conducted in order to find which calculation variables poses biggest significance to one another while also conducting a simulation of future NPVs. From the sensitivity analysis, it is found that gas selling price and gas consumption by the customers is two of the most influential variables determining the feasibility of Bintaro Area City Gas project. Using these two variables, the monte carlo simulation is conducted with a triangular distribution manner. The monte carlo simulation resulted in the probability of the project maintaining its feasibility in the long run based on randomly generated amount of NPVs. The results show that 72.1% probabability that PGN profited from this project, and 0.2% the NPV ranging from its baseline values to Rp. 0. These percetages leaves 27.7% probability of PGN suffers loss due to negative NPV value incurred from this project.