SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH IN EMISSION REDUCTION SCENARIOS OF ELECTRICITY SECTOR WITH NUCLEAR ENERGY MIX IN FIVE PROVINCES OF KALIMANTAN
In the next few years, it is estimated in five provinces in Kalimantan there will be a significant increase in electricity demand due to the development plans of the smelter industrial area and relocation of the capital city. The coal and oil based existing conventional generators will inevitably...
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| Format: | Theses |
| Language: | Indonesia |
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| Online Access: | https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/71994 |
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| Institution: | Institut Teknologi Bandung |
| Language: | Indonesia |
| Summary: | In the next few years, it is estimated in five provinces in Kalimantan there will be a
significant increase in electricity demand due to the development plans of the
smelter industrial area and relocation of the capital city. The coal and oil based
existing conventional generators will inevitably increase greenhouse gas and air
pollutant emissions continuously towards the end of the study period. This will also
impact on the risks to human health and the environment. In this study, a simulation
of electricity supply planning was carried out with and without considering
emission reduction by introducing nuclear energy and other new and renewable
energy mixes in the power generation sector. The system dynamic method is used
to analyze the dynamic evolution process of a highly complex electricity demand
and supply system. The composition of the electricity mix from various types of
power plants is an essential factor in determining the amount of emissions produced
by the power generation sector. The results of the dynamic model simulation under
conservative industrial growth conditions (baseline 2020) show that if efforts are
made to reduce emissions and introduce nuclear power plants in the power plant
development plan, it is estimated that there will be a reduction in CO2 emissions of
193.8 thousand tons (3%) per year, with total CO2 emissions in the five provinces
in Kalimantan in 2060 around 11% of the total CO2 emissions without efforts to
reduce emissions from the power generation sector. Meanwhile, the results of the
simulation in conditions of expansive industrial growth and the presence of the new
capital city/IKN (intervention), is estimated to reduce CO2 emissions by 143.6
thousand tons (3%) per year, with total CO2 emissions of around 9% compared to
the total CO2 emissions without emission reduction efforts. As an added benefit of
this research, reductions in air pollutant emissions from the power generation
sector were also calculated, for parameters SO2, NOx, CO, PM10, and PM2.5. The
simulation results showed that the total loading of SO2 and on NOx emissions from
the electricity mix that introduces nuclear energy and other EBT is reduced to 4-
8% compared to the total emissions of SO2 and NOx without efforts to reduce
emissions. At the same time, with other air pollutant parameters such as CO, PM10,
and PM2.5, the total emission load produced was calculated for around 12-23% of
the total emissions without any efforts to reduce emissions. This additional benefit
has the potential to reduce impacts on health. Other benefits can be related to the
potential larger economic growth in the Kalimantan region a result of increase in workers/students productivity |
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