STOCK INVESTMENT IN GLOBAL ECONOMY TURBULENCE USING FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

• Main Author: Toni Yulianto, Ardian
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/72650
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Capital market is the most attractiveness investment instrument in Indonesia. Indonesian capital market is growing significantly from 2006. The data from BEI have shown us that IHSG/composite index in the end of 2006 was higher than IHSG in the end of 2005. This growth was continuing in 2007, IHSG/composite index was increase 52% than closing IHSG in 2006. IHSG have been the best performer in the region and also have been the third of the best performance in the world after Shanghai composite index. But, this condition was changed in 2008, the movement of IHSG facing several threath from macro economy changes. Global economy had been turbulent and facing slowdown. Almost of all countries in the world was facing economic slowdown. This caused by financial crisis in United States. This financial crisis caused by sub prime mortgage case. This crisis made big companies in the world that related with this case especially companies in US and Europe, they suffered a lot of loss and can be bankrupt. This crisis also made unemployment, decreasing purchasing power and decreasing US Dollar rate. This decreasing of US Dollar made increased commodity price that can made inflation. Domestic macroeconomic in Indonesia also was influenced by global economic slowdown. Economic growth of Indonesia has been decrease too. Meanwhile that, increasing of commodity price cause increasing price in domestic market that made increased inflation. Interest rate also increased because in order too keep the inflation movement. Indonesian rupiah rate more stable caused by decreasing US Dollar. This condition make investors should be careful before invest in capital market. The researcher also analyze industry, in industry analysis the researcher got that plantation industry and mining industry as the best industry in Indonesian capital market. Both of those industry has positive growth during global economic turbulence. Based on the financial ratio, the researcher got that BUMI and PTBA as the best company in mining industry. Meanwhile that, AALI and LSIP as the best company in plantation industry. Based on stock valuation BUMI and ITMG is undervalued and PTBA is overvalued. Because of that, BUMI and ITMG as the best stock in mining industry. The writer is also doing technical analysis for long term and short term. Long term technical analysis is more suitable for investor and short term technical analysis is more suitable for trader. At global economy turbulence, it should be better if investor or trader do hit and run strategy. To invest in stock market should be better if fundamental analysis and technical analysis support each other.