MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR THE SPREAD OF ACUTE RESPIRATORY INFECTION (ARI) IN DKI JAKARTA PROVINCE

• Main Author: Zikri, Afdol
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/73046
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Abstract This thesis analyzes the spread of Acute Respiratory Infections (ARI) in DKI Jakarta Province using spatial analysis (data clustering with the K-Means method) and temporal analysis (curve fitting using the Richard curve and determination of onset time). The aim is to understand the pattern of ARI spread and categorize districts based on the number of cases per month. Cumulative ARI data cannot be explained by a single curve, so a generalized version of the Richard curve equation is used to achieve better curve fitting and a deeper understanding of the dynamics of ARI incidents. The research also determines the Onset of ARI Incidents for each district in DKI Jakarta Province by fitting the cumulative ARI data using the generalized Richard curve function. The calculation results of ARI onset provide initial insights into when the transmission of ARI occurs in those areas. The findings of this research can serve as a basis for policy-making and planning for ARI control in DKI Jakarta Province.