SCENARIO PLANNING AND SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL FOR BIOMASS CO-FIRING SUSTAINABILITY IN INDONESIA

• Main Author: Bagus Novendianto, Ivan
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/73597
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) as state-owned energy company has shared its net zero emission (NZE) commitment by 2060 in COP26 Glasgow. PLN aim to promote long-term energy transition and decarbonization in the power sector and fully supports government program to provide a better living space for future generations. PLN has initiated 8 lighthouse initiatives to implement and scale decarbonization technology and innovation, driving energy transition, using new & renewable energy (NRE), driving NRE development acceleration, and enabling sustainable demand from new technologies. One from eight lighthouse initiative from PLN is Biomass Co-firing Project in Coal Fired Power Plant (CFPP). Biomass Co-firing Project Implementation Target in 2025 as follows; Implementation target in 52 CFPP, Green energy target 12.7 TWh/year, Biomass consumption target 10.2 million ton, and New and Renewable Energy Mix Contribution 3.6%. Currently, the national biomass co-firing project realization until December 2022 is still dominated by sawdust, in total 0.29 million ton biomass consumption in 2021, and 0.542 million ton biomass in 2022. To achieve biomass consumption target of 10.2 million ton in 2025, there is still a lot to do. Also, the need of biomass will increase dramatically from 2.83 million ton in 2024 become 10.2 million ton in 2025. Without specific strategy to address this issue, the continuity of biomass co-firing project and biomass co-firing GWh green output growth are threatened, mostly because it will be stuck with early success and can’t grow anymore because of shortage of supply. To support continuous implementation of biomass co-firing project in Indonesia, there is a need to develop scenarios to get an accurate picture of what is happening currently, where are we going currently and how we strategize the next step to make the biomass co-firing project successful. The scenarios that are developed is derived from PLN current data. The goal is to see the implications of biomass co-firing project implementation on the PLN target of biomass co-firing project to support energy transition to clean energy in Indonesia and finding the right strategy to successfully support energy transition in Indonesia. In the study we develop 3 scenarios: Expansive Co-firing Scenario, Searching for Supply Scenario, and Status Quo Scenario. The Expansive Co-firing scenario is the ideal scenario where technology and innovation regarding biomass co-firing develops rapidly and biomass availability becomes high and ready to use in power plant with high percentage ratio of co-firing and have a good biomass pricing from policy issued by government. The Searching for Supply scenario is the scenario when there is no urgency to support biomass co-firing project from government side and no change in pricing policy because of conflicting priorities and thinking green energy can be priced as low as coal. The Status Quo scenario is the scenario where biomass availability develops slowly due to low interest from the stakeholders to support biomass co-firing project. From Government there is no urgency to support biomass co-firing project and no change in pricing policy because of conflicting priorities and thinking green energy can be priced as low as coal. Also in this study, author develop a simplified system dynamics study regarding the outcome of Expansive Co-firing and Searching for Supply scenario, if there is a support of pricing and financing policy, the biomass supply will be maintained and can continuously support the project. Each scenario will provide different early warning signals and implications for the biomass co-firing project. Thus, strategic options developed will also be different. Hopefully from this study we can attain sustainability of biomass co-firing project in facing the energy transition challenge from fossil fuel to clean energy.