LONG TERM PROJECTION OF ENERGY DEMAND IN EAST INDONESIA REGION: LOW EMISSION ANALYSIS PLATFORM (LEAP) MODEL APPLICATION

• Main Author: Taufiqurrahman, Rifqi
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/74691
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Energy is a critical element in driving economic sectors, with oil being a significant feedstock worldwide. Its strategic importance is undeniable in supporting the global economy. However, consumerization, which refers to excessive consumption and dependence on resources, has contributed to crises in numerous countries across different regions. Energy consumption is also a severe problem worldwide, especially in industrialized countries, including Kalimantan, Indonesia. The dominant primary energy type in the energy supply mix in 2020 is coal, accounting for about 38.5% of the national total, followed by oil at about 32.8%, gas at about 17.4%, and the rest at about 11.3% through New Renewable Energy (NRE). Therefore, it is necessary to review energy planning. This research examines the long-term projection of energy demand and supply in the Eastern Indonesia Region. The scenarios developed include the sustainable and progressive development of Indonesian gold, which are simulated using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) and Python for Power System Analysis (PyPSA) software. In addition, the basic assumptions used to obtain the projected population up to 2045 come from the Macro Planning and Statistical Analysis (PMAS) document but use a flat or continuous growth rate of 0.3% from 2045 to 2060, while the GDP growth rate is calculated as a critical resource based on PMAS by BAPPENAS, Indonesia's National Development Planning Agency. The results of this study are important to determine the energy demand and supply of electricity in Eastern Indonesia from various sectors such as household, commercial, industrial, transportation, and others. Thus, the results show that the demand for electrical energy in the household sector in the Eastern Indonesia Region recorded a growth rate of 2.2%, while the commercial and industrial sectors' energy demand recorded a higher growth rate of 4.6% and 5.4%, respectively. %. The transportation sector, namely the road transportation sector, which is expected to grow significantly in the future, is the most significant contributor to electricity demand. Road transportation sector electrification energy demand recorded a 27.4%. In addition to energy demand, the supply of power generation capacity in Eastern Indonesia is also growing, in 2060 with scenario 0 using nuclear at around 6.28%, while scenario 1 without nuclear grows around 8.49%. The overall reduction in greenhouse gas emissions on the demand and supply of electricity in the Eastern Indonesia Region will decrease by 17% in 2060.