ELECTRICITY ENERGY DEMAND OF FORECASTING AND SUPPLY IN WEST INDONESIA 2060 USING LEAP AND PYPSA

• Main Author: Febiorama, Alravi
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/74709
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

The global CO2 emissions phenomenon related to energy has experienced a significant increase and reached a record high in 2021. This is supported by regional analysis and detailed fuel data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), using the latest official national data as well as publicly available energy, economic, and weather data. Indonesia, as a country with a population of over 270 million people, faces challenges in meeting the continuously increasing energy demand. Primary energy supply in Indonesia is dominated by oil, gas, and coal, which accounted for about 85.6% in 2020. The 2014 National Energy Policy (KEN) sets a target to increase the share of renewables in the total primary energy supply to at least 23% by 2025 and at least 31% by 2050. In this analysis, the LEAP model is used to optimize end-use energy demand, technical parameters, economic parameters, and population parameters. The model's output provides estimates of energy demand and the composition of the electricity generation mix, which are then used as input data for optimization simulations using PyPSA. The largest electricity consumption occurs in the Jamali region with a total of 15,424 TWh in 2060, followed by Sumatra with 175.06 TWh and Kalimantan with 49.77 TWh. Additionally, the per capita electricity consumption in Indonesia is projected to increase from 1,109.55 kWh in 2021 to 3,657.38 kWh in 2045 and 4,892.91 kWh in 2060. The average LCOE values for scenarios 0 and 0' are 80.986 USD/kWh and 112.308 USD/kWh, respectively. For scenarios 1 and 1', the average LCOE values are 747.235 USD/kWh and 843.459 USD/kWh. The average LCOE values for scenarios 2, 3, 4, and 5 are higher, namely 199.379,120 USD/kWh, 199.349,728 USD/kWh, 163.413,575 USD/kWh, and 40.573,707 USD/kWh.